This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

0 (0 bps)

1 (25 bps)

2 (50 bps)

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

NVIDIA

Apple

Alphabet

Largest Company

Largest Company end of July?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest Company end of December 2026?

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Second Largest Company

2nd Largest Company end of July?

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

3rd largest company

3rd Largest Company end of July?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest Company end of August?

This market will resolve based on CXMT's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.

It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.

If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.

The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.

In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.

400B+ yuan

370–400B yuan

<250B yuan

CXMT IPO Closing Market Cap

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

3rd Largest Company end of August?

This market will resolve according to "Yes" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released.

If a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.

Earbuds/Headphones

Clip-on device for clothing

Glasses

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.

This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.

A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

SpaceX

Anthropic

OpenAI

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

December 31, 2026

March 31, 2026

December 31, 2025

AI bubble burst by...?

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2nd Largest Company end of August?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.

An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

September 30, 2026

August 31, 2026

OpenAI IPO by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that any part of PayPal will be, has been, or is being acquired by Stripe, or that PayPal is being merged with Stripe, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Acquiring a part of PayPal refers to any material acquisition of a subset of PayPal by Stripe, including but not limited to a PayPal subsidiary, business unit, or equity interest. A total acquisition of PayPal by Stripe will count. Business partnerships between PayPal and Stripe will not count.

An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by PayPal or PayPal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from PayPal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Designated Contract Market (DCM) self-certifies sports-related event-based contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC or the respective DCM; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Aristotle

CBOE

DCMs self-certify sports event contracts

Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

MGM Resorts

PayPal

Viking Therapeutics

Which companies will be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn H200 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.

This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.

Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.

↓ $4.00

↓ $3.75

↓ $3.50

H200 Rental Price

GPU rental prices (H200) hit___ in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for December 31, 2026. 

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.

Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.

$4.00-$4.50

$4.50-$5.00

$6.00-$6.50

GPU rental prices (H200) end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No".

This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

SHEIN

Discord

Yearly IPOs

IPOs before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn B200 Index price for July 31, 2026. 

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.

Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.

$6.00-$7.00

$7.00+

$5.00-$6.00

B200 Rental Price

GPU rental prices (B200) end of July?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Google

Companies with #1 AI

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on the last trading day of July 2026.

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the last trading day of July.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the specified day of SpaceX trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published for the specified day, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the specified day for purposes of this market.

This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on the last trading day of the calendar month in which SpaceX completes its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by SpaceX to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the last trading day of the calendar month in which SpaceX completes its IPO.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s last trading day of the calendar month in which SpaceX completes its IPO (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the last trading day of the calendar month in which SpaceX completes its IPO.

$1.5T-$2.0T

$1.0T-$1.5T

<$1.0T

SpaceX Closing Market Cap End of Month

SpaceX Closing Market Cap End of July

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Deepseek completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If Deepseek is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.