This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Où 2026 se classera-t-elle parmi les années les plus chaudes jamais enregistrées ?

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

1.38–1.41ºC

1.42–1.45ºC

1.34–1.37ºC

Août 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC) (GRÈVES PLUS ÉLEVÉES)

>1,29ºC

1,25–1,29ºC

1,20–1,24ºC

Août 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026  versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.

Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for September 2026  is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Deuxième plus chaud

Le plus chaud

4e ou plus bas

Septembre 2026 1er, 2ème ou 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. 

Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

1st hottest

3rd hottest

4th or lower

2026 1er, 2, 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.

The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Température globale

Où 2026 se classera-t-elle parmi les années les plus chaudes jamais enregistrées ?

Août 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC) (GRÈVES PLUS ÉLEVÉES)

Août 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)

Septembre 2026 1er, 2ème ou 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?

2026 1er, 2, 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?

Septembre 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)